I bought the dress for a friend's daughter at the Eau Claire benefit sale last year, and it seemed to run pretty true to size, but she was 12, so a lot bigger than your daughter. I would call customer service-when I was ordering Nicki the coconut pajamas, they had the chest, waist and inseam measurement, so I knew for sure what would fit. It's a cute dress and it wasn't hard to find sandals like the dolls to really make the outfit complete. Erin wore it when we went to AGPC last summer. Even if it would be too big now, at the sale price, it would be worth putting away for a year.